Author: matas.urbonavicius@gmail.com
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Has debt grinding began?
Originally posted on 2025-01 There are reasons to believe that debt grinding has begun. It can shape the markets for the next 10-30 years as it did from the late 1940s all the way to 1980s. All the current projections show US going towards extreme debt-to-GDP ratios or in other words, moving in the same…
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Is FED in trouble?
Originally published on 2025-01 FED is in trouble? If past tells us anything about the future- recession is literally around the corner. But the market will give it a try making this time different. First of all, every single time:– 10Y – 2Y sharply reverses up,– Unemployment starts rising,– Inflation sharply goes down after a…
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US-China carry trade
Chinese 10Y yield is now below 1.7%. The implications of this is absolutely bazookas and may lead to insane US performance, similar to what happened with Japan in the early 1990s. The 1.7% long term rates imply flight to safety and deflationary pressures. At the same time Yuan is depreciating making sure not a single…